Howden’s 2026 research report: Re-balancing

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5 minutes

05 January 2026

Market report on (re)insurance as of January 1st, 2026: towards a new balance.

Many lessons drawn from our report "Trends in the insurance market in 2026" published in September 2025 have enriched our analysis of the renewals as of January 1, 2026.

Today, we are publishing our new annual report "Re-balancing", which decrypts the major evolutions of the (re)insurance sector and the macroeconomic forces that are reshaping the risk landscape. The rate reductions adjusted to risk mark a turning point: the market is becoming more flexible while maintaining its rigor with a rigorous pricing of volatility to preserve profitability.

  • This dynamic creates unique opportunities to optimize programs and expand coverage.
  • Our direct access to the reinsurance market allows us to capture these favorable conditions and put them at the service of our clients.

Companies and insurers who act quickly will fully benefit from this favorable cycle.

The market is softening and prices are falling, despite persistent volatility. Anticipating emerging risks and innovating will be the key to staying ahead. For businesses, 2026 promises a wider range of solutions to protect against unforeseen shocks - political, cyber, or asset-related.
Eric Demange - Deputy General Manager and Director of Property and Casualty Insurance

What needs to be remembered from our analysis

1. 2025, a major turning point for risk mapping.

Threats that were believed to have been relegated to the past - wars, sabotage, rearmament, populism, and protectionism - are reemerging on the scene, interacting with a technological acceleration without precedent. Monetary fluctuations, inflation, interest rates, and budgetary policies, whether restrictive or lax, also regain a central place, accentuating divergences among countries.

We are facing a paradoxical global economy: both resilient and vulnerable at the same time.
Moderate growth but stable is emerging in a context of major transformations, creating as many risks as opportunities.

The rise in the costs of goods and financing, the reconfiguration of trade exchanges, the intensification of security threats, and technological innovation - driven by the Tech and AI giants - are reshaping investment flows and transforming risk perception.

2. Increased competition drives prices down.

During the renewals of January 2026, the majority of lines have returned to tariff levels close to those four years ago, even though the conditions are now stricter.

France is among the first countries to benefit from these tariff reductions.

Source: Howden, NOVA

3. Opportunities to seize by 2030.

The flexibility of the market rewards expert subscription and innovation, that is, the ability to select and price risks with precision to preserve profitability, while developing new insurance solutions tailored to emerging needs. This combination creates major opportunities in strategic areas such as cyber, renewable energies, data center construction, and parametric coverages.

Source: Howden, NOVA

2026: the year of rebalancing

Conditions should remain in 2026, in the absence of major macroeconomic or sectoral events, supported by solid capitalization and the willingness of reinsurers to defend their market shares.

The market remains sensitive to losses, financial volatility, and the high cost of capital, highlighting the fragility of conditions in the face of any significant shock.

This context creates opportunities throughout the value chain:

  • For subscribers, the easing of the market is reflected in tariff reductions and expanded coverage, with supply exceeding demand in most segments. They thus have a favorable window to strengthen their protection in an environment marked by high risks and increased potential for shocks.
  • For insurers, they approach 2026 with savings from renewals and options to strengthen their protection. The transition does not mean relaxation: it values excellence in underwriting - that is, the ability to select and rate risks rigorously - and stimulates innovation to design differentiating solutions, capture new risk pools, and increase premium volume.
Rapport Re-balancing
richard
After a year where the implementation of new policies has redefined global trade, accentuated geopolitical risks, and transformed macroeconomic conditions, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment. The world is transitioning from a phase of turbulence to a period of adaptation, where we will have to deal with the consequences of these changes.
richard
Richard Deguettes - Key Account Manager for Property and Casualty Insurance
Rapport Re-balancing

For more information, download the report.

For a thorough analysis of emerging risks and changing cycles, download the full report now.

At Howden, we are committed to providing a balanced and objective view, serving the interests of our clients. This report highlights key industry trends and actionable insights, paving the way for innovative solutions.

We are ready to collaborate closely with insurers and reinsurers to support change and ensure our clients have access to the best protections available in the market.

I download the report (PDF)

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