El Niño 2026 Risk Alert | October–December 2026 rainfall season

Executive Summary

The Tanzania Meteorological Authority has indicated that the October to December 2026 rainfall season is expected to be significantly influenced by a strong El Niño event. Businesses should anticipate the possibility of above-normal rainfall, localized flooding, water ingress, transport disruptions, supply-chain interruptions and operational downtime in exposed locations.

Potential Business Impacts 

  • Property damage to buildings, warehouses, offices and production facilities.
  • Damage to stock, machinery, electrical equipment and critical infrastructure.
  • Disruption to logistics, transportation and supply chains.
  •  Business interruption arising from flooding or restricted site access.
  • Increased motor fleet and transportation losses.
  • Construction delays and engineering project exposures.
  • Agricultural and livestock losses in vulnerable areas.


Five Priority Actions

  • Review insurance arrangements, including flood, storm and business interruption coverage.
  • Inspect premises and clear drainage systems, gutters and water channels.
  • Protect critical equipment, records and stock above anticipated flood levels.
  • Test business continuity, disaster recovery and emergency communication plans.
  • Implement outstanding risk improvement recommendations and contingency measures.


Sector-Specific Guidance

Motor Fleets

Avoid driving through flooded roads or moving water. Relocate vehicles from low-lying areas where severe weather is expected. If a vehicle becomes submerged, do not restart the engine before professional inspection.

Construction & Engineering

Review temporary works, drainage, excavations, scaffolding, material storage and protection of plant and equipment. Confirm insurers are informed of material project changes where required.

Agriculture & Livestock

Monitor weather advisories, improve drainage, protect agricultural inputs and review crop or livestock insurance arrangements and triggers.

If Loss or Damage Occurs

  1. Prioritise life safety and emergency response measures

  2. Notify your insurer and Howden Representative as soon as possible

  3. Document damage through photographs, videos and written records

  4. Retain invoices and receipts for emergency expenditure

  5. Preserver damaged property for inspection whenever practical

Howden Support

Howden Tanzania can assist clients with insurance programme reviews, catastrophe and flood risk assessments, business continuity planning, claims preparedness reviews and risk mitigation strategies designed to strengthen organisational resilience.
 

Official Alert from Association of Tanzania Insurers (ATI)

EL NINO ALERT

Contact Us

Please contact your Howden Relationship Manager for guidance on risk preparedness, coverage reviews and claims readiness.

Get in touch 

Mussa John - Head of Claims

[email protected]
Mohamed Beiya - Claims Executive 

[email protected]
Revocatus Mayunga - Claims Executive 

[email protected]

Disclaimer: This communication is provided for general information purposes only. Insurance coverage remains subject to the terms, conditions, limits, warranties, endorsements and exclusions of the applicable policy.